Since September, 2023 more than 110,000 refugees have fled into Armenia from the Republic of Artsakh, better known in the international media as Nagorno-Karabakh. They are following in the footsteps of some 25,000 ethnic Armenians who have returned from Syria since 2013. Moreover, about 75,000 refugees from Ukraine and self-exiles from Russia have settled in Armenia since February, 2022.
Armenia, with its 2,800,000 population living on 29,743 km2 or 95 persons per square kilometer, is facing a severe housing shortage, particularly in the region of Yerevan, home to about 50% of the population.
Other NGOs have taken up the slack on the immediate problems of providing food, tents, and other short-term humanitarian relief.
What is not being addressed is providing permanent shelter to the more than 200,000 new arrivals. We estimate the need to be 50,000 dwelling units or about a 10% increase in the national housing stock, with about 35,000 newly built homes around Yerevan and 15,000 renovated residences in more rural areas like Kapan, just over the border from Azeri-occupied Artsakh.
To add 50,000 units to the national housing stock of Armenia is on the order to US$1 billion per year over a 5-year period, a tall order for an economy of approximately US$14 billion or $5,000 per capita.
As we look at the success of Habitat for Humanity in the USA and several other countries, we believe we can contribute to the housing shortage in a small but meaningful way. By starting with 4-12 units in 2024, our efforts may prove to be the catalyst to get a national effort underway.
To that end, 2 parcels of developable land are available, one of which is a +/- 1 hectare plot zoned for multiple residential units, and the other is a +/- 3 hectare plot currently zoned for agricultural purposes with much recent re-zoning for residential use. These are located 14 Km southwest of Yerevan off the Ashtarak Highway.
Ex-land (estimated market value of US$150,000), we believe it would cost approximately US$500,000 to erect 6 units (subject to approvals) on the first parcel, and about $2,000,000 to erect 18 units (subject to approvals and determination of cost of utilities), or approximately $2,500,000 for 24 units or about $104,000 per unit over a 12 to 18 month period. With administrative costs recovered, we believe the minimum delivered value of a unit would be US$120,000.
If we follow the Habitat for Humanity model, the cost to the homeowner would be reduced by the amount of donated labor contribution on the construction and land improvement costs, facilitating financing to market.
As we gain experience in the local housing market, our goal would be double our output in each year of a 5 year planning period, with the goal of helping 300-500 families.